Revised outage limits raise concerns on power system reliability in Visayas and Mindanao

QUEZON CITY, 10 September 2026 — Filipino consumers are facing mounting pressure for a more dependable power system as recurring grid alerts expose vulnerabilities in the country’s electricity supply. The Visayas alone recorded 123 yellow and red alerts since January, underscoring the need for policy and system-level measures to strengthen the power system and ensure consumers have access to affordable and secure electricity. 

Following the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC)’s recent revision of reliability standards and allowable equivalent unplanned outage days for generating units, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) is raising concerns that higher outage allowances could weaken incentives for generation companies to improve plant reliability. 

Over the past year, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) has issued repeated yellow and red alerts across Luzon and Visayas grids, signaling that available power reserves had fallen to critical levels. These alerts have coincided with a pattern of unplanned outages among large power plants, particularly coal-fired units, which have gone offline unexpectedly and placed additional strain on an already tight power system.

Under the new ERC Resolution, allowable unplanned outage days have increased for nearly all generation technologies covered by the previous standards. In several cases, the revised allowance is nearly double the limit previously set under Resolution No. 10, Series of 2020.

	Old Allowable Unplanned Outage Days (Resolution No. 10, Series of 2020)	Updated Allowable Unplanned Outage Days (Resolution No. 23, Series of 2026)
Biomass	7.0	32.06
Circulating Fluidized Bed	16.9	27.32
Pulverized	16.8	32.15
Gas Turbine	22.7	26.92
Combined Cycle	7.7	14.35
Diesel	14	21.09
Geothermal	13.7	22.98
Oil-fired thermal	27.8	37.03
Hydro Conventional	6.8	12.72
Pumped-Storage Hydro	-	18.98
Run-of River Hydro	-	12.03

Under the new framework, nearly all generation technologies are allowed more unplanned outage days, although the extent of the increase varies across technologies. For several technologies, among them pulverized coal, combined cycle, and conventional hydro, the allowable outage days effectively doubled. 

According to the ERC, the revised thresholds were based on actual operating and outage data between 2015 and 2024. ICSC acknowledges the value of this data, noting that a decade of operating history provide a clear picture of where the country's generation fleet has struggled to perform reliably. 

However, ICSC stressed that this same historical record should be used to identify reliability gaps, not to establish past underperformance as the accepted benchmark for future reliability.

"A reliability standard should be built around what the grid, and the consumers who depend on it, need going forward, not around what plants have already delivered," Mr. Alberto Dalusung III, ICSC’s Energy Transition Advisor said. "And when a single power plant fails, the impact is rarely confined to that plant alone."

The consequences extend beyond individual plant performance. The Philippines remains heavily reliant on a limited number of large, centralized power plants, a structure that leaves the broader grid vulnerable whenever one of these plants fails unexpectedly. When a major generating unit unexpectedly goes offline, available reserves are quickly depleted, particularly during periods of high demand or limited supply. The grid may then need to dispatch more expensive backup generation, and prices in the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) can rise as a result. These costs are ultimately borne by consumers, who have no direct role in how power plants are operated or maintained.

“When a major power plant gets offline, it can put the entire grid under pressure,” Mr. Dalusung added. “This makes it important for reliability standards to drive better plant performance and ensure that the system is better protected from unexpected outages, rather than simply accepting historical performance as the benchmark. The allowable outage limits should therefore be regularly reviewed and tightened as plant performance improves.”

ICSC has proposed that the ERC treat the revised thresholds under Resolution No. 23 as a transitional standard rather than a permanent benchmark, outlining the following recommendations.

1. Progressive tightening of standards - The ERC should periodically review and reduce allowable outage days as generation performance improves, rather than treating the revised thresholds as a fixed benchmark.

2. Use of outage data for diagnosis, not dilution - Recurring outages should prompt corrective investment and increased regulatory oversight, rather than serve as justification for higher allowances in future revisions.

3. Stronger public disclosure and accountability - Outage performance should be made publicly accessible, with meaningful consequences applied to plants that repeatedly exceed their allowable limits.

4. System-wide evaluation of outage impact - Reliability assessments should account for how outages affect grid reserves, market prices, and consumer costs, rather than treating each incident in isolation.

5. Parallel investment in grid diversification - Expanding rooftop solar, battery storage, and other distributed energy resources would reduce the broader grid's exposure to the failure of any single power plant.

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The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities is a Philippine-based non-governmental organization that advances climate, energy, and low-carbon solutions to enable fair and climate-resilient development at the national and international levels.

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