QUEZON CITY, 25 March 2026 — The Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao grids are projected to have sufficient power supply from April to June 2026 but reserve margins remain thin, according to the latest report of the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC).
That said, power supply margins remain highly vulnerable to changes in demand, delays in project completion, unplanned outages of major power plants, and constraints in the high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines.
In the latest “Philippine Power Outlook: Reviewing the Adequacy of Power Supply for April to June 2026” launched by ICSC yesterday, findings showed that the Luzon grid will have adequate reserves in the second quarter of this year, given the timely delivery of committed capacities during the first half of 2026. Notable power plants among these are Phase 1 of the Terra Solar project, with a total projected capacity of 1,785.7 megawatts (MW), and the Bugallon Solar Power Project, with a projected capacity of 530.4 MW.
The Visayas grid is expected to maintain normal reserves primarily through HVDC imports of up to 450 MW from Mindanao and 250 MW from Luzon. However, it is projected to experience yellow grid alerts in May, even with imports from across the country. This may be further aggravated if Luzon and Mindanao need to restrict exports as their reserve margins tighten.
Mindanao, meanwhile, is projected to maintain normal reserve levels throughout the second quarter, driven by sufficient existing generation capacity that allows it to meet demand even while exporting power to Visayas. The grid’s tightest period is expected in late April, which may prompt possible reductions in HVDC exports when reserve margins narrow.
This analysis is based on the 2025-2027 Weekly Power Outlook published by the NGCP in December 2024, with updates integrated from the Department of Energy’s (DOE) List of Existing and Committed power plants as of November 2025. ICSC adopted conservative assumptions in its findings, taking into account forced outages of about 700 to 800 MW.
“If additional power plants go offline beyond what is expected, this could further aggravate the power outlook and potentially lead to a more grave outcome, as available supply would be reduced,” said Jephraim Manansala, ICSC’s Chief Data Scientist and one of the authors of the Philippine Power Outlook report.
ICSC has released its Power Outlook report annually since 2021, estimating power supply and demand in the country ahead of the summer months, when electricity demand is typically at its peak. This year, the first grid alert was raised over the Visayas grid in January, which is considered a period of low demand.
“This grid alert highlights the structural vulnerabilities that persist in the Philippine power system; it demonstrates that power supply challenges are not solely driven by high summer demand but are fundamentally linked to chronic forced outages of baseload plants and inadequate reserve margins,” said report co-author and ICSC Senior Data Analyst Charles Jason Diaz.
Impacts of the escalating conflict in the Middle East have also exposed energy security risks in the Philippines, as the country heavily relies on imported fossil fuels for power. Extensive damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, the world’s largest LNG export hub, also puts the Philippines at risk of higher electricity prices and exacerbated power supply issues in the immediate and long-term.
The impact of these events may also be particularly significant in off-grid areas in the Philippines, where power supply is heavily reliant on diesel power plants. This can potentially result in reduced operating hours and constrained power supply, given the current availability of fuel reserves.
Among renewable energy options, solar is a low-hanging fruit that can be deployed quickly to improve access to electricity and provide communities with a more reliable supply. Rapid deployment of solar rooftops and community solar projects can help stabilize local grids and contribute to an affordable, reliable, and secure power supply.
“We have already identified a significant amount of available potential solar rooftop spaces across the country, and detected over 3,000 MW of existing solar rooftop capacity. Solar and battery are already cheaper than coal and LNG. It does not have the problem of land conversion and interconnection, and it generates power where it is needed,” said Atty. Pedro Maniego Jr., ICSC’s Senior Policy Advisor, citing data from the organization’s solar mapping tool Solar Power Estimation of Capacities and Tracking Using Machine Learning (SPECTRUM).
Amid these concerns, ICSC emphasizes the need for improved energy efficiency and conservation, strict compliance with the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP), and utilizing energy imports and exports among the major island grids as short-term solutions. Looking ahead, the organization also recommends concerted efforts to transition to a flexible and modernized power grid, and more distributed and diversified power generation that makes use of the country’s wealth of indigenous, renewable energy sources.
“The bottomline is that we have plenty of renewable energy (RE) resources. During crises, RE tends to become a hot topic — yet the technologies themselves have already existed for quite some time. While strong policies are already in place, their implementation hasn’t been as aggressive as needed in the past,” said Engr. Gaspar Escobar Jr., ICSC’s Grid Modernization Advisor. “There is a clear need to intensify and accelerate RE deployment even beyond this crisis, so we can eventually move away from our dependence on imported fossil fuels and achieve energy security.”
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The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities is a Philippine-based non-governmental organization that advances climate, energy, and low-carbon solutions to enable fair and climate-resilient development at the national and international levels.
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